Published: 2026-05-31 | Category: weekly_roundup | Words: 666
# Week 15 Portfolio Update: DCA Progress and Market Signals
## DCA Accumulation: The Numbers Don't Lie
Week 15 of the systematic DCA approach is complete. Numbers tell better stories than opinions, so here is the raw data.
**Current portfolio allocation (Week 15):**
| Asset Class | Target | Current | Variance |
|-------------|--------|---------|----------|
| BTC | 40% | 38.2% | -1.8% |
| ETH | 25% | 26.4% | +1.4% |
| IDX Equities | 20% | 19.1% | -0.9% |
| US Tech (NDX) | 10% | 11.8% | +1.8% |
| Cash/Reserve | 5% | 4.5% | -0.5% |
The variance isn't alarming. It's healthy. I run a 3% band around targets, and we are sitting comfortably within that. The slight underweight in BTC reflects recent price action, which brings me to my next point.
ETH flipped my target allocation this week. That is the second time in four weeks. I am not rebalancing yet because the move feels momentum-driven rather than fundamental. When I look at the on-chain metrics and developer activity, the case for ETH remains solid. Momentum is momentum. I will wait for a clearer signal before touching the allocation.
## Reading the Market Signals: What I Am Watching
Three signals are flashing yellow this week. Not red, not green. Yellow means pay attention.
**Signal 1: The Dollar Index DXY**
DXY pushed above 104.5 on Thursday before retreating. This matters for Indonesian investors because the rupiah follows with a lag. BI has maintained the 7-day reverse repo rate at 6% since February, and Governor Perry Warjiyo has been clear about prioritizing stability over rate cuts. If DXY holds above 104 for another two weeks, I am watching the rupiah closely. Every 100 pips of USD/IDR movement affects my IDX equity positions through the import cost channel.
**Signal 2: US Tech Earnings Season**
The first batch of Q2 earnings reports starts dropping in two weeks. My NDX exposure is concentrated in the mega-cap names: the usual suspects. These companies report revenue and guidance, and their moves drag the entire index. My view is that expectations are too high. The AI capex cycle is real, but the revenue conversion timeline keeps slipping. I am not reducing exposure yet, but I am not adding either.
**Signal 3: Crypto Liquidity Conditions**
Stablecoin supply growth has stalled over the past 30 days. This is a leading indicator I track closely. When stablecoin supply contracts or plateaus, risk asset liquidity typically follows within 60 to 90 days. BTC has held above $62,000 support, but the volume profile tells a different story. The buying pressure is thinning. I am not panicking, but I am not deploying aggressive new capital into crypto until liquidity conditions show improvement.
## IDX Watch: Local Market Dynamics
The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) closed the week down 0.8%, underperforming regional peers. The culprit is familiar: profit-taking in banking and consumer staples as investors rotated into energy names ahead of potential fuel price adjustments.
The government signaled subsidy review discussions last week. This is not confirmed policy, but the market is pricing in a 10 to 15% probability of adjustments. Energy stocks rallied on the speculation. My IDX positions are tilted toward infrastructure and digital economy plays, which gives me some insulation if the subsidy question gets resolved upward.
Bank Indonesia's latest minutes confirm the data-dependent stance. Core inflation printed at 2.3% in April, still below the 3% target. This keeps the door open for eventual rate cuts, but Governor Warjiyo's commentary suggests cuts will not come before Q3 at the earliest. The market is pricing in 25 basis points of cuts by December. I am aligned with that expectation.
What concerns me is the current account deficit widening to 0.6% of GDP in Q1. Indonesia's trade balance has been supportive, but the services deficit is growing. This is a structural issue tied to import demand for capital goods and technology. It is not a crisis, but it is a headwind worth monitoring.
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